Deployment and Assessment of Predictive modelling, environmentally sustainable and emerging digital technologies and tools for improving the resilience of IWW against Climate change and other extremes
PLOTO aims at increasing the resilience of the Inland WaterWays (IWW) infrastructures and the connected land- infrastructures, thus ensuring reliable network availability under unfavourable conditions, such as extreme weather, accidents and other kind of hazards. Our main target is to combine downscaled climate change scenarios (applied to IWW infrastructures) with simulation tools and actual data, so as to provide the relevant authorities and their operators with an integrated tool able to support more effective management of their infrastructures at strategic and operational levels. Towards this direction, PLOTO aims to: – use high resolution modelling data for the determination and the assessment of the climatic risk of the selected transport infrastructures and associated expected damages; – use existing data from various sources with new types of sensor-generated data (computer vision) to feed the used simulator; – utilize tailored weather forecasts (combining seamlessly all available data sources) for specific hot-spots, providing early warnings with corresponding impact assessment in real time; – develop improved multi-temporal, multi-sensor UAV- and satellite-based observations with robust spectral analysis, computer vision and machine learning-based assessment for diverse transport infrastructures; – design and implement an integrated Resilience Assessment Platform environment as an innovative planning tool that will permit a quantitative resilience assessment through an end-to-end simulation environment, running “what-if” impact/risk/resilience assessment scenarios. The effects of adaptation measures can be investigated by changing the hazard, exposure and vulnerability input parameters; – design and implement a Common Operational Picture, including an enhanced visualisation interface and an Incident Management System. The PLOTO integrated platform and its tools will be validated in three case studies in Belgium, Romania and Hungary.
Project Funding
European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA)
HORIZON-CL5-2021-D6-01
Collaborators
Netcompany – Intrasoft – INTRA
Exus Software – EXUS
Budapesti Muszaki Es – BME
Univerza v Mariboru – UM
Diadikasia Business Consulting – DBC
Radios Segelyhivo es Infokommunikacios Orszagos Egyesulet – RSOE
Universite de Liege – ULIEGE
Regia Aytonoma Administratia Fluviala a Dunarii de Jos Galati – AFDJ
Universitatea Danubius din Galati – UDG
Asociata Romanian River Transport Cluster – RRT
MAV Magyar Allamvasutak Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszveny Tarsasag – MAV
National Technical University of Athens – NTUA
RISA Sicherheitsanalysen GmbH – RISA
Budapesti Szabadkikoto Logisztikai Zartkoruen Mukodo RT – BSZL
Finnish Meteorological Institute – FMI
Societal Resilience and Climate Change Center of Excellence – SoReCC
Service Public de Wallonie – SPW MI
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki – AUTH
European Road Transport Telematics Implementation Coordination Organisation – ERTC
SATWAYS
Time Period
Sept 2022 – Febr 2026
Relevant Publications
Melissianos V.E., Karaferis N.D., Bakalis K., Kazantzi A.K., Vamvatsikos D. (2024). Operational status effect on the seismic risk assessment of oil refineries. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 113: 104842.
Abstract | The operational status of an oil refinery (type and scale of operations that take place at any time instance) largely determines the amount of fuel produced, circulated within the facility, and stored in tanks. This status is affected by seasonality, periods of peak or low demand, as well as periods of routine maintenance. However, it is an aspect that is typically neglected even though it stands out among the factors that determine the seismic performance of several critical industrial assets, such as the storage tanks, as well as the consequences of any potential failure. An open-source refinery testbed is employed herein to demonstrate the effect of the refinery’s operational status on the seismic risk estimates. Alternative realistic operational scenarios are developed following typical industry practices and are arranged over a time period between two refinery major maintenance shutdown events. The most probable damage state is selected for each asset to identify the most vulnerable ones. Based on the type and importance of the impacted assets, the potential consequences are determined at the facility level. Resulting estimates are very different if an earthquake strikes during a regular/high/low-demand period, or a maintenance period. The framework can be utilized to identify the locations within the refinery that may trigger cascading failures and secondary damages, should their assets be damaged by a seismic event. The outcomes can be exploited by stakeholders, risk engineers, and emergency action planners for developing customized and businesslike procedures to enhance the seismic resilience of the facility.
Melissianos V.E., Karaferis N.D., Bakalis K., Kazantzi A.K., Vamvatsikos D. (2024). Hazard, exposure, fragility, and damage state homogenization of a virtual oil refinery testbed for seismic risk assessment. Earthquake Spectra. 2024;0(0).
Abstract | A virtual mid-size oil refinery, located in a high-seismicity region of Greece, is offered as a testbed for developing and testing system-level assessment methods due to direct impact from seismic shaking and without considering geohazards, such as liquefaction and surface faulting. Its characterization is offered in a dedicated repository (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11419659) and it comprises (a) a comprehensive probabilistic treatment of seismic hazard tied to an open-source seismological model; (b) a hazard-consistent set of ground motion records; (c) a full geolocated exposure model with all pertinent critical assets, namely tanks, pressure vessels, process towers, chimneys, equipment-supporting buildings, and a flare; (d) the corresponding record-wise asset demands and summarized fragilities derived via nonlinear dynamic analyses on reduced-order numerical models. Background information is provided on all refinery assets to delineate their role in the refining process. Furthermore, an explicit homogenization of the damage states is proposed, translating them from the asset level to the refinery system level considering the importance of each asset on the overall operational and structural integrity of the refinery. The results can form the basis of any follow-up study that seeks to characterize the effects of cascading failures (fires, explosions), mitigation measures, seismic sequences, and operational constraints on the functionality, risk, and resilience of refining facilities.
Tsarpalis D., Karaferi E., Mohsen K., Vamvatsikos D., Zeppos J. (2024). A Mesoeconomic Resilience Framework For Regional Seismic Assessment Studies. Proceedings of the 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Milan, Italy.
Abstract | On account that modern societies cannot be built on earthquake-proof infrastructure (e.g., buildings, roads, power supplies), increasing resilience through preparedness and adaptation measures is the state-ofart approach to reduce severe consequences to core community functions. From an economic standpoint, the impact of a disaster can be discretized into two parts: (i) the direct losses, which comprise the cost needed to repair/replace the damaged/destroyed assets and (ii) the indirect losses, which are related to the reduction of gross valued added during the post-event period. Currently, most regional risk assessment studies are focusing on the evaluation of the direct losses, either ignoring the indirect part or using qualitative approaches to coarsely assess its impact. In support of risk assessment and crisis mitigation planning, a meso-scale economic resilience framework is proposed that allows a quantitative estimate of indirect loss in tandem with conventional direct loss assessment. The model is based upon a sector-wide approach, in which the individual businesses operating within the community are aggregated into compact sectors. Subsequently, the postevent performance of each sector is assessed using three indices, (a) the infrastructure index to measure the reduced productivity of a sector due to direct infrastructure damages, (b) the input index to propagate disruptions in the supply chain by employing Vendor Dependence Tables, and (c) the output index to reflect the reduction of demand due to disruptions (a) and (b). The model is designed to accommodate the salient characteristics of modern urban societies, addressing complex socioeconomic aspects such as the adaptive behaviour of residents and visitors, and the capability of a sector to redistribute business traffic within or outside the community. The methodology is demonstrated in the historical city of Granada in Spain, using three hypothetical earthquake scenarios of incremental intensity and impact.
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Chatzidaki A., Vamvatsikos D., Loli M., Tsatsis A. (2024). Multi-Hazard Risk And Resilience Assessment For The Egnatia Odos Highway In Greece. Proceedings of the 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Milan, Italy.
Abstract | Risk and resilience are assessed for the Metsovo-Panagia segment of the Egnatia highway in Greece, focusing on the seismic and the wind hazard. This segment comprises steep slopes, bridges and the operator control building that are vulnerable to the seismic hazard as well as an ensemble of sign-support structures over several kilometers of the highway that are exposed to environmental conditions, thus being susceptive to fatigue damage under wind loading. The aim is to develop a tool for pre-event risk assessment and rapid post-event inspection of critical road infrastructure by combining hazard, vulnerability, and sensor information to predict the resulting consequences. A component-based approach is adopted for the critical highway assets while asset interdependencies are considered to assess the system-level consequences for the entire highway. These are quantified in terms of direct monetary losses and downtime as well as actions that the road operator shall take until repair actions have finished, i.e., number of closed lanes and the allowable speed limit in the remaining open ones. This allows tracing back the consequences after an event to individual components/assets and can help road operators establish inspection prioritization protocols and manage associated incidents, facilitating the rapid assessment of the state of the highway and optimal recovery to full functionality.
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Lachanas C.G., Vamvatsikos D., Causse M., Kotha S.R. (2024). The Effect Of Ground-Motion Characteristics And Intensity Measures On The Sliding Of Rigid Bodies. Proceedings of the 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Milan, Italy.
Abstract | The sliding response of rigid bodies is investigated under multiple suites of ground-motion records having different inherent characteristics: Ordinary (no-pulse-like, no-long-duration), near field, pulse-like versus spectrally-matched non-pulse-like twins, and long-duration versus spectrally-matched short-duration twins. A basic Coulomb friction model of a rigid block resting freely on a flat surface is used as a testbed, applying incremental dynamic analysis to assess response statistics under the different suites at multiple levels of intensity. Alternative intensity measures are employed, including the peak ground acceleration, the peak ground velocity, and variants of average spectral acceleration—defined as the geometric mean of spectral accelerations over a range of periods. As engineering demand parameters, both the maximum absolute displacement and the absolute residual displacement are employed. The results indicate a non-trivial sensitivity to duration and pulsiveness, and suggest as well that some intensity measures perform considerably better than others in suppressing sensitivity to such peculiar ground-motion characteristics.
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Melissianos V.E., Lachanas C.G., Lignos X.A., Vamvatsikos D., Chatzidaki A., Dasiou M-E., Manetas A. (2024). A Holistic Platform For The Seismic Risk Assessment Of Ancient Monuments. Proceedings of the 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Milan, Italy.
Abstract | The protection of cultural heritage against natural hazards and in particular earthquakes is a critical and challenging task because authorities try to tackle the steady onslaught of extreme seismic events and continuous deterioration of the structure. Countries around the Mediterranean Sea have a portfolio of monuments, some of which are in relatively poor condition and in danger of sustaining non-recoverable damage due to earthquake events. Protecting these monuments becomes more daunting within budget limitations. In this framework, a holistic platform for the seismic risk assessment of ancient monuments has
been developed within the EU-Greece funded research project ARCHYTAS to serve as a decision-support tool to assist the prioritization and restoration actions before a seismic event happens or in a post-event environment, providing a rapid assessment of the monument structural status for the given event. The overall system is presented indicatively for the Aphaia Temple in Aegina island, Greece.
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Kazantzi A.K., Karaferis N., Melissianos V., Vamvatsikos D. (2024). Seismic Reliability Of Acceleration-Sensitive Ancillary Elements In The New Generation Of Eurocodes. Proceedings of the 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Milan, Italy.
Abstract | The seismic performance of nonstructural/ancillary elements plays a decisive role in the seismic resilience of both ordinary buildings and critical industrial and infrastructure facilities, since damages that are likely to be sustained by such components can undermine the functionality and safety of an otherwise structurally intact structure. Owing to the above, the new generation of Eurocodes invests a great deal of effort towards prescribing appropriate provisions for delivering anchoring systems of acceleration-sensitive nonstructural components that can withstand the (often greatly) amplified floor accelerations with respect to the ground ones. In particular, prEN 1998-1-2:2022 offers a very detailed methodology for estimating the acceleration that is eventually imposed at the component level, accounting for several dynamic attributes of the primary system and the nonstructural component, which are yet not always trivial to determine with an appropriate level of confidence. This paper investigates to what extent the reliability of a code-conforming nonstructural component can be affected by the uncertainties associated with the assumptions made during design. The focus is on the relation of the period of the component to the period of the supporting building using a typical industrial building-type structure as a case-study. On account of the findings that revealed a rather significant sensitivity of the final design product to these uncertainties, the study extended its scope towards reviewing two alternative design methodologies that are offered in prEN 1998-4:2022 for the design of ancillary elements. These two latter approaches are shown to be less sensitive to the designer’s input and can offer more robust designs for the anchorage systems of nonstructural components that are close to tuning with the frequencies of the primary structure.
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Karaferis N.D., Melissianos V.E., Vamvatsikos D. (2024). Mechanical modeling, seismic fragility, and correlation issues for groups of spherical pressure vessels, Acta Mech, 235:1563-1582.
Abstract | A roadmap is outlined for determining comprehensive seismic fragility curves for (single or groups of) spherical pressure vessel structures commonly found in oil refineries. The developed modeling techniques aim to strike a balance between accuracy and computational efficiency, with a focus on capturing the most pertinent failure modes relevant to these structural types. First, a set of “partial” fragilities is determined based on each vessel’s fill ratio, as the response varies substantially depending on the amount of liquid content. Considering that a seismic assessment process invariably involves simultaneous consideration of such partial fragilities, a Monte Carlo-based approach is employed for their combination. The results naturally depend on the level of correlation employed, but can be almost perfectly matched by simpler analytical methods in the edge cases of full and zero correlation.
Kazantzi A.K., Karaferis N.D., Melissianos V.E., Vamvatsikos D. (2024). Acceleration-sensitive ancillary elements in industrial facilities: alternative seismic design approaches in the new Eurocode. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 22: 109-132.
Abstract | The Eurocode 8—Part 4 approaches, per their December 2022 update, are presented for the design of acceleration-sensitive industrial ancillary components. The seismic performance of such nested and/or supported ancillary elements, namely mechanical and electrical equipment, machinery, vessels, etc. is critical for the safety and operability of an industrial facility in the aftermath of an earthquake. Of primary importance are the structural characteristics of the supporting structure and the supported component, pertaining to resonance, strength, and ductility, and whether these are known (and to what degree) during initial design and/or subsequent modifications and upgrades. Depending on the availability and reliability of information on the overall system, the Eurocode methods comprise (a) a detailed component/structure-specific design accounting for all pertinent component and building characteristics, equivalent to typical building design per Eurocode 8—Part 1–2, (b) a conservative approach where a blanket safety factor is applied when little or no such data is available, and (c) a ductile design founded on the novel concept of inserting a fuse of verified ductility and strength in the load path between the supporting structure and the ancillary element. All three methods are evaluated and compared on the basis of a case-study industrial structure, showing how an engineer can achieve economy without compromising safety under different levels of uncertainty.
Melissianos V.E., Kazantzi A.K., Karaferis N., Bakalis K., Vamvatsikos D. (2023). Reduced-order models of steel structures for the seismic risk assessment of oil refineries. Proceedings of the 10th Hellenic National Conference on Steel Structures, Athens, Greece.
Abstract | Ensuring the structural and operational integrity of oil refineries in case of an earthquake event is of utmost importance for the society, the environment, and the economy. A potential failure in such critical facilities may trigger a number of undesirable situations, such as fire, injuries, environmental pollution, etc. Hence, improving safety plan and increasing seismic resilience is a necessity that requires the development of reliable models and seismic risk assessment tools. Towards this direction, this paper presents a seismic fragility study of two characteristic steel high-rise stacks encountered in oil refineries, namely a relatively low-rise chimney and a process tower. The developed of reduced-order numerical models, the selection of appropriate engineering demand parameters to capture the seismic response of the structures, the calculation of the fragility curves, and finally the evaluation of the overall seismic response are presented. The results could be exploited in the context of a seismic risk assessment study of an oil refinery, as an integrated system.
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Vamvatsikos D., Lachanas C.G. (2023). Stranger things in seismic response and statistical tools to resolve them. Proceedings of the SECED 2023 Conference, Cambridge, UK.
Abstract | Demogorgons, monsters, and mythical creatures do not appear only in Soviet research labs, secretive government facilities or just plain Hawkins, Indiana. They frequently cross-over to earthquake engineering in the form of questions that conform to the paradigm of “Does X matter in seismic response?”. X can be a seismological characteristic, such as duration, vertical component, incident angle, or near-field directivity; it can also be a structural property, such as building period, rocking block size, or plan asymmetry. We, as investigative structural engineers, are vastly more familiar with the latter set of queries and we are clearly better equipped to handle them. We can sometimes even provide definitive answers that most, if not all of us, would agree upon. Instead, questions involving seismological characteristics seem to leave us baffled and stuck in an Upside Down world that resembles structural engineering but is not exactly the same. Wading through its murk, it is good to have some investigative tools and processes that will help us find our way home. In the end, though, we may end up equal parts enlightened and confused, as most questions of whether something of the seismologist world matters for the structural one are nearly-universally answered by uttering “It depends”.
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Melissianos V.E., Karaferis N.D., Kazantzi A.K., Bakalis K., Vamvatsikos D. (2023). Towards seismic resilience of industrial facilities: the case study of an oil refinery. Proceedings of the SECED 2023 Conference, Cambridge, UK.
Abstract | Crude oil refineries are high-importance infrastructure that play a key role in the energy supply chain. Securing the operational and structural integrity of refineries in the aftermath of an earthquake is crucial for avoiding the undesirable consequences of a Natural-Technological (NaTech) incident, such as injuries, environmental pollution, business interruption, and monetary losses. Refineries are designed, constructed, maintained, and operated under a strict framework of standards and regulations. Still, seismic-related NaTech incidents are occurring. Thus, to assess with more confidence and consequently improve, if needed, their seismic resilience, a coherent performance-based framework needs to be utilised, that accounts for the refinery as an integrated system comprising a variety of structural typologies, such as buildings, tanks, and high-rise stacks. These structures have very diverse dynamic properties and hence seismic responses. Towards this objective, a virtual crude oil refinery is examined herein as a case study. The aim is to showcase the steps of a seismic risk assessment framework when applied to such infrastructures, focusing on the evaluation of the seismic hazard, the development of the exposure model, the numerical analysis of the structures, and the preliminary damage assessment of the facility using different earthquake scenarios.
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Kazantzi A., Karaferis N., Melissianos V.E., Vamvatsikos D. (2023). Design of acceleration-sensitive ancillary elements under uncertainties in the new eurocode. Proceedings of the SECED 2023 Conference, Cambridge, UK.
Abstract | The overall seismic safety and operability of industrial building-type structures located in critical infrastructure facilities, largely depend on the seismic performance of their nested and/or supported ancillary elements, namely mechanical and electrical equipment, machinery, vessels, etc. Hence, on account that (a) no or minimal direct structural damages are anticipated in the equipment-supporting structures per se during moderate or even strong earthquake events since such structures are typically overdesigned and (b) the sustained structural damages are mostly due to the inferior seismic performance of the nested ancillary elements that could trigger a series of adverse cascading incidents (e.g., uncontrolled fires, explosions), significant effort has been
invested towards developing a design framework that could deliver safe designs for the latter. Despite the significant advancements in the relevant field, the development of a robust design framework is often undermined by several uncertainties that come into play in the evaluation of the capacity and demand of such nonstructural components. In particular, critical information that is needed for the design of the ancillary elements, such as the dynamic characteristics of the component and the supporting structure, are often abstract and/or require substantial effort for being retrieved with certain confidence. On that basis, the new Eurocode 8, offers three distinct design options that allow for adjustments in the conservatism that is induced in the design of the acceleration-sensitive ancillary elements according to the availability and reliability of information on the overall system. This study investigates, by means of a case study industrial structure, the extent to which the seismic reliability of an otherwise code-compatible component designed to comply with each one of the three alternative Eurocode design routes, is likely to be undermined for small discrepancies of the assumed properties from their actual values.
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Lachanas C.G., Vamvatsikos D., Dimitrakopoulos E.G., (2023). Rocking intensity measures: From interface variables to response proxies. Proceedings of the SECED 2023 Conference, Cambridge, UK.
Abstract | In the context of the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework an intensity measure (IM) is the interface (or interfacing) variable that links the seismic hazard with the structural fragility/vulnerability for the risk assessment of structures. On the other hand, from the standpoint of structural dynamics, an IM may be used as a proxy for predicting the structural response under a specific ground motion. Hence, depending on the usage per case, different criteria of optimality should be employed. An interface variable needs to be efficient (low conditional dispersion) and sufficient (low dependence on seismological parameters), whereas also its hazard needs to be assessable via available ground motion prediction equations. For the case of a proxy, hazard computability is not necessary, whereas the most important criterion is the capability of the IM to predict the engineering demand parameter (EDP) within a (simple) regression model. Thus, a response proxy needs mainly to offer high correlation and low fitting errors within IM-EDP regression models. Herein, after addressing these two different cases of IM usage, a comparison of alternative IMs for rocking structures is presented, mainly focusing on their use within a PBEE framework for risk assessment. Simple rocking bodies are employed for running incremental dynamic analysis with a set of 105 ordinary (no-pulse-like, no-long-duration) natural ground motions. It is shown that some well-established IMs are both efficient and sufficient for the case of rocking bodies. Still, due to the nature of rocking response, some (e.g., peak ground acceleration) tend to be optimal only in specific regions of response (e.g., rocking initiation). Moreover, dependence on the magnitude of the earthquake is found to be higher than for the distance from the rupture. Finally, IMs that are inefficient and insufficient for risk assessment can be at the same time very effective when used as response proxies.
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PLOTO Members
