Who We Are

The λab team is an energetic mix of individuals undertaking research and consulting projects within the wider field of risk assessment under natural and man-made hazards.
Our Team

Projects

Selected Publications
We have a strong commitment to disseminating our results in top peer-reviewed journals, conferences and guideline documents. Open, near-final versions of each document are available in the details of each publication.

October2025
Elmorsy M., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Impact of Beam-Column Joint Modeling Uncertainties on the Seismic Response of Low-Rise RC Frames. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 53(12): 3224-3243
Abstract | Incremental recordwise Latin hypercube sampling (iLHS) and multiple stripe analysis (MSA) are employed to evaluate the seismic performance of low-rise RC moment-resisting frames subjected to uncertainties of both the values of the model parameters and the model type itself. The study spans various designs of a given 2-story frame, from modern seismic-resistant to older with joint shear deficiencies. It examines fragility curves for global and local behaviors and scrutinizes the selection of intensity measures (IMs). Two levels of fidelity for the beam-column joint modeling are considered: a high-fidelity explicit model and a lower-fidelity implicit model. Findings indicate that model parameter uncertainties have minimal impact for modern frames, while for older frames with joint shear deficiencies, these uncertainties become significant. The study also reveals that no single IM is universally optimal for the ductile or semi-ductile version of this short-period frame; the better performing IM fluctuates between average spectral and peak ground acceleration depending on the drift ratio level; for the brittle joint-deficient one, though, the limited manifestation of plastic behavior makes spectral acceleration at the fundamental period consistently good even close to collapse. The paper concludes with a proposed method for estimating total variance for different limit states, aligning with FEMA P58 guidelines.
June2025
Elkady Α., Kazantzi A.K., Dietz M., Dihoru L., De Risi R., Vamvatsikos D., Lignos D.G., Miranda E., Mylonakis G. (2025). Shake table tests on nonlinear steel fuses for the acceleration-control of nonstructural components. Earthquake Spectra, 2025;0(0).
Abstract | During recent major earthquakes, modern seismically designed buildings have demonstrated a low risk of collapse and life-safety limit states. However, both direct and indirect economic losses are often primarily due to damage to nonstructural components. This damage can be significant even under the more frequent low- or moderate-intensity earthquakes, as corroborated by system-level numerical studies, since it can result in greatly amplified forces and accelerations transmitted into the nonstructural components. Recent numerical research has demonstrated that this can be affordably and practically done by connecting the component to the structure via sacrificial controlled-strength steel fuses, designed to yield at desirable force levels and hence limiting the forces and damage in the nonstructural component. A shake table testing campaign was undertaken at the University of Bristol to experimentally validate this concept. The tests involved 14 specimens comprising different masses and tuned fuse geometries subjected to recorded floor motions, resulting in a total of 45 dynamic tests. The testing campaign, the instrumentation, the processing, and deduction of the response histories are described in detail. The resulting dataset is curated, organized, and made publicly available through an online repository to support further numerical and computational research on damage-free structures.
April2025
Grajales-Ortiz C., Melissianos V.E., Bakalis K., Kohrangi M., Bazzurro P., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Seismic damage assessment of a crude oil hydrodesulphurisation unit. Part II: hazard-consistent fragility assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105520. DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105520
Grajales-Ortiz C., Melissianos V.E., Bakalis K., Kohrangi M., Bazzurro P., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Seismic damage assessment of a crude oil hydrodesulphurisation unit. Part II: hazard-consistent fragility assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105520.
Abstract | This study presents a methodology for developing hazard-consistent component-specific fragility functions for a system of interconnected industrial assets. The approach begins with the seismic hazard assessment of the area of interest carried out for an intensity measure that can be used as a practical yet reasonably accurate statistical predictor of the response of such assets to ground motions of different severity. The response is evaluated via nonlinear time history analyses with an ensemble of ground motions whose spectral content is consistent with the hazard assessed for the site. This methodology is applied to a hydrodesulphurisation unit of a crude oil refinery located in a high-seismicity industrial area of Greece. The exposure model and the unit assets’ models have already been presented in detail in the companion paper. The case study shows that even low-to-moderate intensity ground motions pose a non-negligible probability of damage to assets such as pumps, heat exchangers, high-temperature separators, liquid storage tanks, and piping system. The proposed methodology lays the groundwork for comprehensive system-level seismic risk and resilience assessment studies that evaluate the impact on refinery units or on the entire facility, as will be demonstrated in an upcoming dedicated study.
unit. Part I: exposure and modelling. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105519. DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105519
Grajales-Ortiz C., Melissianos V.E., Bakalis K., Kohrangi M., Bazzurro P., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Seismic damage assessment of a crude oil hydrodesulphurisation unit. Part I: exposure and modelling. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105519.
Abstract | The assets of a hydrodesulphurisation unit of a crude oil refinery are presented in sufficient detail to create a system-wide model for seismic fragility and risk assessment. The assets include pumps, liquid storage tanks, heat exchangers, equipment-supporting buildings, furnaces, process towers, high-temperature separators, and the piping network. Simplified numerical models were employed for the assets, accounting for salient characteristics, functionality, and interconnectivity thereof. Most importantly, a full 3D model of the piping network is provided, which incorporates a simplified representation of the connected structures to capture the dynamic interaction with the piping, enabling cost-effective assessment; increased flexibility in fittings, i.e., elbows, tees, and nozzles, is also accounted for. The end goal is to address the complexities of a small yet critical part of a modern refinery unit and offer a well-documented basis for conducting seismic damage assessment of a critical energy system, which is presented in the companion paper.
Karaferis N.D., Melissianos V.E., Bakalis K., Kazantzi A.K., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Seismic risk assessment of a crude oil refinery testbed: Alternative fragility approaches. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105495.
Abstract | A crude oil refinery is employed as a benchmark to test a fundamental assumption in the seismic risk assessment of asset portfolios, i.e., that a fragility function can characterize an asset (or class thereof) with negligible loss of fidelity. Although this is often taken as granted, it also implies that one should not care about breaking the correlation in response that should exist between similar assets subjected to the same ground motion. After all, this is a direct consequence of the summarization of multiple structural analysis results into a single fragility curve that is only parameterized by the (typically scalar) intensity measure. The alternative is to separately consider individual ground motion records and only aggregate per-record results at the final level of impact metrics. Stacking the deck against the conventional approach, a refinery offers an ideal testbed of interconnected assets and multiple refining processes. The results highlight that wherever multiple similar or identical assets are involved in a system disruption, breaking their record-to-record response correlation can severely bias the assessment results.
March2025
Šipčić N., Quevedo Iñarritu P.G., Kohrangi M., Vamvatsikos D., Bazzurro P. (2025). Practical approach to Hazard-Consistent fragility curve estimates using Bayesian updating. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 437: 114029.
Abstract | Seismic fragility curves provide the probability of exceedance of a given damage state, should different levels of ground motion intensity be experienced at the site where the structure, or component, is located. Such curves are often derived via multiple nonlinear response history analyses (NLRHA) using sets of “suitable” ground motions that, in line with the best practice, should be consistent with the seismic hazard at the site. Based on the selected sets of records, one can estimate fragility functions that are often assumed to follow a lognormal distribution defined by two parameters, i.e., the logarithmic mean (µ) and the logarithmic standard deviation (β). Our focus is on estimating them using a state-of-the-art approach that involves hazard-consistent record selection via Conditional Spectrum and multiple stripe analysis. However, this approach usually requires many NLRHAs, with high computational costs, especially for the complex structural models typical of the nuclear industry. This study investigates the optimal number of ground motions and intensity levels required to keep the computational burden acceptable without compromising accuracy. To do so, we adopt a Bayesian framework with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and Metropolis–Hasting sampling. Our findings show that this approach effectively helps analysts best allocate computational resources while ensuring acceptable accuracy in estimating the probability of reaching or exceeding the considered damage states.
Triantafyllou G., Kohrangi M., Vamvatsikos D., Bazzurro P. (2025). Single Building Seismic Risk Assessment Including the Vertical Component: Quantitative Comparison, Intensity Measures, and Nonstructural Fragility Uncertainties. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 54(7): 1819-1835. DOI: 10.1002/eqe.4336
Triantafyllou G., Kohrangi M., Vamvatsikos D., Bazzurro P. (2025). Single Building Seismic Risk Assessment Including the Vertical Component: Quantitative Comparison, Intensity Measures, and Nonstructural Fragility Uncertainties. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 54(7): 1819-1835.
Abstract | The objective of this study is to investigate whether the additional damage to building components caused by vertical ground shaking and its impact on estimated monetary losses warrants the extra computational effort needed to include this feature for standard risk assessment applications. As a case study, we consider a 2D model of a modern nine-story steel frame building located at a high seismic hazard site in California. The structural and nonstructural demands are assessed via nonlinear dynamic analysis carried out using hazard-consistent bi-directional (horizontal & vertical) ground motion records. We estimated the seismic losses with and without the vertical ground motion using a component-based loss estimation approach based on FEMA-P58. We also explored the sensitivity of the loss estimates to the characteristics of the input vertical acceleration fragility curves. Analysis results indicate a modest increase in the average annual losses (AAL) when the vertical component is included, consistent with the relatively small fraction of the total building replacement cost assigned to components sensitive to vertical motion. We also investigate the sensitivity of the loss estimates to the conditioning ground motion intensity measure adopted in the risk assessment procedure. Considerable discrepancies are observed in the loss estimates on an intensity basis and, to a lesser degree, on a risk basis. Among the tested intensity measures, average spectral acceleration performs better than single-period spectral accelerations in two regards: it provides higher efficiency, and it maintains good consistency of the selected records with the site hazard while using lower levels of ground motion amplitude scaling. Whereas single-period spectral ordinates that will approximate these advantages may exist, finding them requires some investigation.
February2025
Karaferi E., Chatzidaki A., Solstad J., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change to the tourism of Tønsberg, Norway. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 120: 105351.
Abstract | A model is developed to assess the impact of a changing climate to the tourism of the town of Tønsberg, offering data suitable for evaluating the downstream implications to related business sectors. The methodology comprises downscaled data from EuroCORDEX scenarios, weather station observations, and records of visitors to museums of the municipality. To achieve this, correlation patterns are sought between the weather station observations and monthly/yearly visitor numbers. The highest correlation was found to be provided by the mean temperature over the weekends, which complies well with the nature of Tønsberg as a short (sub-daily) visit destination over weekends, without overnight stays. By developing a regression model and tying it to local weather predictions derived from EuroCORDEX, we are able to quantify the probabilistic distribution of yearly visitors and observe the potential effects of a changing climate. Assuming all else remains as is, this shows benefits for the tourism of Tønsberg, befitting its northern coastal (non-alpine) nature. The methodology presented is general enough to be applicable to other cities as long as sufficient data is available.






















