Who We Are

The λab team is an energetic mix of individuals undertaking research and consulting projects within the wider field of risk assessment under natural and man-made hazards.
Our Team

Projects

Selected Publications
We have a strong commitment to disseminating our results in top peer-reviewed journals, conferences and guideline documents. Open, near-final versions of each document are available in the details of each publication.

January2026
Melissianos V.E., Saliba M., Gantes C.J. (2026). Optimized configuration of flexible joints for the protection of onshore buried steel pipelines against tectonic rupture. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 200: 109776.
Abstract | Safeguarding the integrity of onshore buried pipelines against earthquake hazard is a top priority for engineers, researchers, pipe operators, and regulators. The consequences of a potential failure caused by fault rupture can be counteracted by integrating flexible joints in the pipe in the fault vicinity to “absorb” pipe deformation, thus allowing pipe steel segments to remain virtually undeformed. A structural optimization approach for introducing flexible joints is presented. The strategy is formulated as a combined sizing and topology optimization problem, taking into account the number of joints, the distance between two adjacent joints, and the mechanical properties of the joints. The objective is to minimize the life-cycle cost of the protective measure by accounting for the primary parameters affecting its configuration, i.e., fault type and pipeline–fault crossing geometry. Genetic algorithms are employed for solving the optimization problem. All fault types and pipeline–fault crossing geometries are examined. An optimized topology configuration is obtained for each case, and the corresponding design considerations are discussed. The efficiency of flexible joints is demonstrated in comparison to unprotected pipes.
November2025
Movaghar P.T., Taflanidis A.A., Giaralis A., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Sustainability-Driven Risk-Based Design of Inerter Vibration Absorbers for Multistory Hysteretic Buildings under Seismic Hazard. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 151: 11.
Abstract | This paper examines a risk-based multi-objective optimal design framework for seismic protective devices in buildings, tailored to accommodate recently emerging inerter-based dynamic vibration absorbers (IVAs), while treating the conventional tuned mass damper (TMD) as a limiting case. Following recent research efforts, the formulation utilizes the following as competing design criteria: (1) the seismic losses, representing the IVA vibration suppression capability; and (2) the peak IVA force, associated with the device upfront cost. In view of pressing demands for reducing the life cycle embodied carbon of buildings, the embodied energy associated with repairs is introduced in this paper as a sustainability-driven design criterion for describing seismic losses within the multi-objective design framework. Moreover, modern performance-based earthquake engineering standards are adopted for the problem formulation, using a probabilistic seismic hazard characterization across a range of intensities, utilizing nonlinear response history analysis to estimate structural response and adopting an assembly-based vulnerability assessment to quantify seismic damages and consequences. Reduced order structural modeling is leveraged to alleviate the computational burden while enabling the explicit use of nonlinear time history analysis within the design optimization. An efficient stochastic search approach is adopted to identify Pareto optimal solutions for different design variants and evaluate the IVA benefits across different performance quantifications (distinguishing drift from acceleration-sensitive assemblies), risk metrics (distinguishing risk-neutral from risk-averse attitudes), and device types (distinguishing IVAs from TMDs). Numerical results for an illustrative application to a 9-story steel benchmark demonstrate considerable (i.e., up to 35%) reduction of the embodied energy due to repairs compared to the uncontrolled structure while stressing the usefulness of the developed design optimization framework to support multiple risk quantifications and insights for the IVA behavior and performance.
October2025
Elmorsy M., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Impact of Beam-Column Joint Modeling Uncertainties on the Seismic Response of Low-Rise RC Frames. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 53(12): 3224-3243
Abstract | Incremental recordwise Latin hypercube sampling (iLHS) and multiple stripe analysis (MSA) are employed to evaluate the seismic performance of low-rise RC moment-resisting frames subjected to uncertainties of both the values of the model parameters and the model type itself. The study spans various designs of a given 2-story frame, from modern seismic-resistant to older with joint shear deficiencies. It examines fragility curves for global and local behaviors and scrutinizes the selection of intensity measures (IMs). Two levels of fidelity for the beam-column joint modeling are considered: a high-fidelity explicit model and a lower-fidelity implicit model. Findings indicate that model parameter uncertainties have minimal impact for modern frames, while for older frames with joint shear deficiencies, these uncertainties become significant. The study also reveals that no single IM is universally optimal for the ductile or semi-ductile version of this short-period frame; the better performing IM fluctuates between average spectral and peak ground acceleration depending on the drift ratio level; for the brittle joint-deficient one, though, the limited manifestation of plastic behavior makes spectral acceleration at the fundamental period consistently good even close to collapse. The paper concludes with a proposed method for estimating total variance for different limit states, aligning with FEMA P58 guidelines.
June2025
Elkady Α., Kazantzi A.K., Dietz M., Dihoru L., De Risi R., Vamvatsikos D., Lignos D.G., Miranda E., Mylonakis G. (2025). Shake table tests on nonlinear steel fuses for the acceleration-control of nonstructural components. Earthquake Spectra, 2025;0(0).
Abstract | During recent major earthquakes, modern seismically designed buildings have demonstrated a low risk of collapse and life-safety limit states. However, both direct and indirect economic losses are often primarily due to damage to nonstructural components. This damage can be significant even under the more frequent low- or moderate-intensity earthquakes, as corroborated by system-level numerical studies, since it can result in greatly amplified forces and accelerations transmitted into the nonstructural components. Recent numerical research has demonstrated that this can be affordably and practically done by connecting the component to the structure via sacrificial controlled-strength steel fuses, designed to yield at desirable force levels and hence limiting the forces and damage in the nonstructural component. A shake table testing campaign was undertaken at the University of Bristol to experimentally validate this concept. The tests involved 14 specimens comprising different masses and tuned fuse geometries subjected to recorded floor motions, resulting in a total of 45 dynamic tests. The testing campaign, the instrumentation, the processing, and deduction of the response histories are described in detail. The resulting dataset is curated, organized, and made publicly available through an online repository to support further numerical and computational research on damage-free structures.
April2025
Grajales-Ortiz C., Melissianos V.E., Bakalis K., Kohrangi M., Bazzurro P., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Seismic damage assessment of a crude oil hydrodesulphurisation unit. Part II: hazard-consistent fragility assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105520. DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105520
Grajales-Ortiz C., Melissianos V.E., Bakalis K., Kohrangi M., Bazzurro P., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Seismic damage assessment of a crude oil hydrodesulphurisation unit. Part II: hazard-consistent fragility assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105520.
Abstract | This study presents a methodology for developing hazard-consistent component-specific fragility functions for a system of interconnected industrial assets. The approach begins with the seismic hazard assessment of the area of interest carried out for an intensity measure that can be used as a practical yet reasonably accurate statistical predictor of the response of such assets to ground motions of different severity. The response is evaluated via nonlinear time history analyses with an ensemble of ground motions whose spectral content is consistent with the hazard assessed for the site. This methodology is applied to a hydrodesulphurisation unit of a crude oil refinery located in a high-seismicity industrial area of Greece. The exposure model and the unit assets’ models have already been presented in detail in the companion paper. The case study shows that even low-to-moderate intensity ground motions pose a non-negligible probability of damage to assets such as pumps, heat exchangers, high-temperature separators, liquid storage tanks, and piping system. The proposed methodology lays the groundwork for comprehensive system-level seismic risk and resilience assessment studies that evaluate the impact on refinery units or on the entire facility, as will be demonstrated in an upcoming dedicated study.
unit. Part I: exposure and modelling. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105519. DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105519
Grajales-Ortiz C., Melissianos V.E., Bakalis K., Kohrangi M., Bazzurro P., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Seismic damage assessment of a crude oil hydrodesulphurisation unit. Part I: exposure and modelling. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105519.
Abstract | The assets of a hydrodesulphurisation unit of a crude oil refinery are presented in sufficient detail to create a system-wide model for seismic fragility and risk assessment. The assets include pumps, liquid storage tanks, heat exchangers, equipment-supporting buildings, furnaces, process towers, high-temperature separators, and the piping network. Simplified numerical models were employed for the assets, accounting for salient characteristics, functionality, and interconnectivity thereof. Most importantly, a full 3D model of the piping network is provided, which incorporates a simplified representation of the connected structures to capture the dynamic interaction with the piping, enabling cost-effective assessment; increased flexibility in fittings, i.e., elbows, tees, and nozzles, is also accounted for. The end goal is to address the complexities of a small yet critical part of a modern refinery unit and offer a well-documented basis for conducting seismic damage assessment of a critical energy system, which is presented in the companion paper.
Karaferis N.D., Melissianos V.E., Bakalis K., Kazantzi A.K., Vamvatsikos D. (2025). Seismic risk assessment of a crude oil refinery testbed: Alternative fragility approaches. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 124:105495.
Abstract | A crude oil refinery is employed as a benchmark to test a fundamental assumption in the seismic risk assessment of asset portfolios, i.e., that a fragility function can characterize an asset (or class thereof) with negligible loss of fidelity. Although this is often taken as granted, it also implies that one should not care about breaking the correlation in response that should exist between similar assets subjected to the same ground motion. After all, this is a direct consequence of the summarization of multiple structural analysis results into a single fragility curve that is only parameterized by the (typically scalar) intensity measure. The alternative is to separately consider individual ground motion records and only aggregate per-record results at the final level of impact metrics. Stacking the deck against the conventional approach, a refinery offers an ideal testbed of interconnected assets and multiple refining processes. The results highlight that wherever multiple similar or identical assets are involved in a system disruption, breaking their record-to-record response correlation can severely bias the assessment results.
March2025
Šipčić N., Quevedo Iñarritu P.G., Kohrangi M., Vamvatsikos D., Bazzurro P. (2025). Practical approach to Hazard-Consistent fragility curve estimates using Bayesian updating. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 437: 114029.
Abstract | Seismic fragility curves provide the probability of exceedance of a given damage state, should different levels of ground motion intensity be experienced at the site where the structure, or component, is located. Such curves are often derived via multiple nonlinear response history analyses (NLRHA) using sets of “suitable” ground motions that, in line with the best practice, should be consistent with the seismic hazard at the site. Based on the selected sets of records, one can estimate fragility functions that are often assumed to follow a lognormal distribution defined by two parameters, i.e., the logarithmic mean (µ) and the logarithmic standard deviation (β). Our focus is on estimating them using a state-of-the-art approach that involves hazard-consistent record selection via Conditional Spectrum and multiple stripe analysis. However, this approach usually requires many NLRHAs, with high computational costs, especially for the complex structural models typical of the nuclear industry. This study investigates the optimal number of ground motions and intensity levels required to keep the computational burden acceptable without compromising accuracy. To do so, we adopt a Bayesian framework with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and Metropolis–Hasting sampling. Our findings show that this approach effectively helps analysts best allocate computational resources while ensuring acceptable accuracy in estimating the probability of reaching or exceeding the considered damage states.

























