Vamvatsikos D., Chatzidaki A. (2021). Fragility and Loss assessment via mixed probabilistic models of seismic demand. Proceedings of the 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (17WCEE), Sendai, Japan
Abstract | A mixture model is presented for combining the results of different models or analysis approaches into a single probabilistic seismic demand model that is suitable for fragility assessment. A structure can be represented using different model types or even levels of resolution for the same type, while it may also be analyzed via methods of different complexity, most notably static versus dynamic nonlinear approaches. Combining the results from different sources can be beneficial as it allows updating the results of a simpler approach or combining the strengths of two different models. For example, as the static pushover analysis offers inexpensive yet low-fidelity demand assessment at any level of intensity, its results may be locally or globally updated by adding stripes of (computationally expensive) response history analysis. On the modelling side, different model types may offer accuracy advantages in complementary response regions. This is the case of distributed-plasticity fiber models that offer higher fidelity for reinforced concrete frames at low (pre-capping) deformations, while lumped-plasticity models are more reliable for larger (post-capping) deformations closer to collapse. Through the combination of the results of multiple models of differing fidelity we can potentially better capture the performance of a structure at all levels of seismic intensity. By employing a minimal 5 parameter power-law-based model we offer viable options for forming mixed probabilistic seismic demand models that can combine both different models and different analysis methods into a single output suitable for fragility and loss assessment.