Karaferi E., Kohrangi M., Spillatura A., Tsarpalis D., Vamvatsikos D. (2024). Seismic Risk, Direct, And Indirect Losses For The Historic City Of Rhodes. Proceedings of the 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Milan, Italy.
Abstract | A risk assessment model is developed for the historic city of Rhodes, Greece, with a focus on the buildings, residential and commercial, that are at risk from earthquakes, the main hazard that the city faces. The structural integrity of the buildings of Rhodes is tested under a stochastic event set of spatially correlated ground motion fields. They are generated with the OpenQuake platform via an event-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for 10,000 years using the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model. All commercial or mixed-use buildings are assigned to corresponding lines of business according to census data and expert opinion, while using data from the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model to determine vulnerability functions, and from HAZUS-MH to assess the related downtime. The assessment takes as input the exposure model, the hazard, and the vulnerability of the assets to return the direct and the indirect losses per line of business. This allows the determination of the direct consequences to the city, translated to the economic losses to rebuild or renovate the damaged buildings. Stemming from the direct losses and especially the downtime, a mesoeconomic model is employed to determine the losses caused by business interruption on an event-by-event basis. By thus providing a comprehensive assessment of the risk faced by the city, the model can be used to develop a socioeconomic impact model and support the development of financial mitigation tools.
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